Geopolitical Rivalry in Central Asia

The geopolitical power vacuum formed by the sudden independence of the five former Soviet Socialist Republics of Central Asia, as well as the fall of the communist regime in Afghanistan, led many scholars and political analysts to foresee the commencement of a new “Great Game”, but this time with more players and with fossil fuels playing a central role. The Great Game refers to the intense rivalry and competition for the control of Central Asia between the British and Russian Empires in the 19th century.

Central Asia is usually defined as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. That said, it should be noted that geopolitics in Central Asia often includes Afghanistan and the Caucasus. There are also some other regional powers that have new interests in Central Asia, like Turkey, that has cultural and linguistic ties to the region; Iran, that wants to regain influence in the historic backyard of the Persian Empire; or Pakistan and India, that are willing to transport their rivalry to new grounds.

Russia and China Between Competition and Cooperation

Russia and China, are in a way partially Central Asian countries, and both have regions inhabited by Turkic-speaking minorities. The United States is therefore the only outside power with considerable political and economic leverage in the region. The emergence of competition in Central Asia unraveled as those three powers progressively increased their influence in the region and recent developments at the onset of the 21st century have brought that competition to its current critical state.

The growing American presence following September 11 and its invasion of Afghanistan, which was initially accepted by Russia, posed a direct challenge to Moscow when the real American objective of displacing Russian influence became clear. As for China, it first saw opportunities in the multipolar trends of competing interests of regional actors, but then saw the purpose of American involvement in Central Asia as to also contain Chinese presence. This shared perception of an American threat has contributed to bring Russia and China much closer and led them to join together in a strategic partnership aimed at countering American power projection in the region and beyond.

Central Asia is probably the region where Russian and Chinese interests correspond the most, especially in security cooperation through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and in energy policy coordination. Since then, even if they have different or even competing goals, the relationship between the two powers have matured to a point where they are actually able to counter the lone superpower, the United States.

The Outsider Power: The United States

Washington's main political, economic and security goals and interests in Central Asia are first of all related to counter-terrorism in Afghanistan and the restive Fergana Valley, divided between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as well as better access and control over energy resources and pipeline routes. It hopes that promotion of democracy and market economy reforms will not only help achieve those objectives but also significantly increase its influence in the region, thus displacing the Russian presence and containing the growth of China.

However, aggressive promotion of democracy has been viewed as a threat by local authoritarian leaders who have in reaction grown even closer to Moscow and Beijing. The ouster of the US military from the Kashi-Khanabad airbase in Uzbekistan in 2005 was a example of the counter-productivity of American methods. Sensing that the SCO was becoming the most important multilateral institution in the region, Washington even sought observer status in 2006, but was turned down.

The examination of the Sino-Russian close relationship and the United States' limited capacity to fully exert its influence in Central Asia shows that the unipolar world order that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union is on the defensive. A new multipolar world order is now appearing through the cracks of American global hegemony, and the two biggest actors of this change are Russia and China.

References

Buszinsky, Leszek. “Russia's New Role in Central Asia.” Asian Survey 45, 4, 2005.

Olcott, Martha Brill. “The Great Powers in Central Asia.” Current History 104, 684, 2005.

Sheives, Kevin. “China Turns West: Beijing's Contemporary Strategy Towards Central Asia.” Pacific Affairs 79, 2, 2006.

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