It is very difficult, almost impossible or even blasphemous to predict the future with absolute certainty. This is especially true with modern society where change is a daily occurrence. In the context of Africa’s future, however, there seems to be an exception to this rule. This is because the patterns are so regular that many Africans are sure beyond doubt that there will be hunger tomorrow. This hunger is only a step away from chaos. And chaos is a regular pattern in Africa.
African Migrants and The Future of The Continent
A society of “all against all” as Thomas Hobbes calls it, is a society without a future. Africa’s future has therefore been an object of debate among futurists. The question “What will Africa look like in 2050?” intrigued Professor Immanuel Wallerstein. He seemed to find an answer in African migrants. “The younger generation reacts to this in many ways” he said. “Some emigrate ….”
There is little doubt that migration will play an important role in shaping Africa’s destiny in the near and distant future. As the continent continues to descend the slope of chaos, its youths struggle to seek salvation elsewhere. In utter pessimism, Wallerstein says of Africa, “In 2007, the overall political and economic picture of Africa does not at all match the expectations of 1957.” This year was the year of Ghana’s independence, a moment of hope and expectation for Africa.
Patterns and Figures Related to African Migration
Because of its proximity and historical links with Africa, Europe continues to reel from the increasing weight of African migration. America faces a similar challenge. China with its own population load has to pay the heavy price for embracing Africa. Part of this price is the task of accepting an increasing number of African migrants.
In her article “African Migrations: From Tensions to Solutions,” Gumisai Mutume observes that Africans constituted 16.3 million (or 9%) of the 175 million migrants worldwide in 2000. Likewise, Naomi Schwarz of VOA Regional Bureau in Dakar, admits that about 31.000 illegal immigrants from West Africa reached Spain’s Canary Island in 2006. It is estimated that more than 10 million Africans live and work legally in Europe. China currently plays host to an estimated 250.000 Africans while America’s more than 11 million illegal immigrants has a sizeable number of Africans.
These figures do not tell the tale of suffering and misery undergone by African migrants to reach their “promised lands.” The numbers frozen in the cold waters of the European coast are staggering. Those drowned in the Mediterranean, those burnt alive in the heat of the Sahara and those killed by hunger and thirst count in thousands. The tales of Africans who reach their destinations but face deportation is not good to tell. Those who make it to new countries face the ordeal of racism, extreme forms of xenophobia, torture and discrimination of all forms. Yet "home" still has little prospects.
Short Term and Long Term Impact of African Emigration
The short term impact of migration is already being felt across Africa both positively and negatively. The most significant of such positive effects is the remittances which greatly help to alleviate poverty in African families. Mr. Philip Ratha, Senior Economist at the World Bank observes that developing countries now receive more than $165 billion annually in remittances. Uganda is a case in point where surveys show that remittances to that country may have reduced poverty by 11 percent.
Emigration is very good news for Africa’s corrupt elite who are spared the anger of the continent’s young and energetic generation which decides to look elsewhere for salvation. This helps to reduce or postpone potential crises in a continent where power is both a cult and an obsession. It however has the disadvantage of crippling strategic sectors such as public health and education through brain drain.
The long term impact of African emigration is still a subject of debate. But the most likely possibility is the continuation or exacerbation of conflicts in the continent. Africa already has, and continues to cultivate an ideal environment for conflict. The children of Africa’s ruling elite will face the task of protecting the wealth and power bestowed on them by their parents, relatives and tribesmen. This will place them at odds with those the migrating masses whom Wallerstein says are “beginning to structure new movements --- trying to construct a second wave of national liberation struggles.”
The Role of Migration In Shaping Africa’s Future
Africa’s liberation struggle has been a history of external interventions. Many African migrants who leave the continent today do so out of frustration. It is therefore very likely that they will play an active role in all future “liberation struggles.” One needs to look at the Bay of Pigs incidence in Cuba and post – apartheid violence in South Africa to understand this equation. Economic and intellectual empowerment are necessary resources for Africa's future change. Africa's present migrants will put these resources to full use in future.
Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, UN Special Representative for West Africa, expressed his fear about Africa’s future in very strong terms. “I dread to think of the scenes we may be contemplating in say 20 years if we do not make a massive consolidated effort to create jobs and opportunities in West Africa.” This area of Africa with its vast and open coastline is an easy starting point for Europe-bound migrants.
African migration has now become not only a humanitarian catastrophe but a security threat. Efforts at addressing this problem should begin from the roots upward. This includes addressing the leadership crisis in the continent, providing economic stability and job opportunities for Africa’s youths. An enabling social climate with good education and health facilities is also an important recipe to curb emigration. Anything short of this is equal to encouraging the outward movement of Africans with all the consequences it entails. Sadly enough, there is the lure of terrorism which is beckoning to Africa’s youths who hunger for revenge either now or in future.
