Reports have begun to surface that the United States and Iraq are close to agreeing on a security pact that would have U.S. combat troops out of the country by 2010, and all troops out by 2013. There’s just one catch: the dates are not fixed and can be adjusted earlier or later depending on security conditions on the ground.
Provisions of the Deal
Some of the reported provisions of the pact include a transfer of control over some areas within the Green Zone in Baghdad, and the redeployment of U.S. military personnel out of Iraqi cities. Additionally, combat forces would be withdrawn from Iraq within two years, and support forces would be withdrawn within five years.
Still to be worked out is a provision sought by the United States to exclude its combat forces from being subject to the Iraqi criminal justice system. A major fear is that U.S. soldiers could be charged with crimes while executing military duties on assigned missions.
Lack of a Timetable
The lack of a rigid timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. forces appears to be a victory for the Bush Administration, which has been staunchly opposed to any withdrawal plan that is not based on security conditions on the ground as determined by military commanders.
In recent weeks, the Iraqi government has begun to express a desire for some sort of timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. military forces, something many analysts have attributed to internal Iraqi political realities resulting from elections scheduled for later this year.
The lack of fixed dates for a U.S. withdrawal allows the governments in Washington and Baghdad to adjust troop levels if the security gains of the past year and a half deteriorate. At the same time, both Iraqi and American politicians can point to the ability to draw down U.S. troop levels, something the publics in both countries support.
Moving Forward
While both Iraqi and U.S. officials claim an agreement is near, it is going to be a tough task to work out all the details before the U.N. authorization for coalition forces in Iraq expires at the end of the year.
In Iraq, members of parliament say it is unlikely they will have time to review all the details of the agreement prior to the end of the year. In the United States, members of Congress insist on their inclusion and consent for any security deal between Iraq and the United States, and seem content to wait for a new president to take office before making any firm decisions on the future of U.S. forces in Iraq.
